Saints-Steelers boasts the highest Vegas total on the Sunday main NFL DFS slate. For this thought exercise, we're mulling the scenario that the offenses in this game don't smash as hard as expected. My DraftKings tournament lineup construction will fade what figures to be the most popular game stack on the slate, instead mining upside elsewhere.
Week 16 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Last week's GPP thought exercise went to complete disaster, as we faded #NarrativeStreet on the Vikings immediately flipping from heavy pass to heavy run. Welp, we're looking to make contrarian swings that pan out this Sunday.
MORE WEEK 16 DFS LINEUPS AND ADVICE:
Y! GPP | Y! cash | FD GPP | FD cash | DK cash | Stacks | Values
Our strategy starts with a contrarian stack of Bucs passing weapons and a heavy game-stack of that Bucs-Cowboys game, in general. Oh, and we're buying into that Vikings running game this week.
QB Jameis Winston, Bucs @ Cowboys ($5,500)
We're banking on the Dallas home defense that allowed Colt McCoy, Marcus Mariota and an injured Carson Wentz to each top 200 yards, and not so much the one that held down Drew Brees. Low ownership is further likely after Winston understandably struggled in the rain at Baltimore.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. TB ($9,000)
Zeke retains the same price even though he goes from visiting an underrated Colts defense to hosting the 30th-ranked unit in DK points allowed to running backs. As you can guess, I'm pivoting off the more popular stack to hammer Bucs-Boys.
RB Dalvin Cook, MIN @ DET ($6,900)
We're not fading the arrival of "ZimmerBall" this week, nope. The Vikes got bet up from 4.5-point favorites to 5.5 early in the week, as both Vegas and the betters project Minny as considerable road favorites. Based on last week, positive game script locks in 20-plus touches at sub-$7K for the now-healthy Cook.
WR Davante Adams, GB @ NYJ ($8,500)
We're veering toward higher-owned stars and low-owned scrubs a bit so far, as these last three may avoid top chalk but still receive decent roster rates. Adams ate 25 DK points sans touchdown in Chicago and has been as matchup-proof as they come. It doesn't hurt DeAndre Hopkins just tore up Gang Green last Saturday.
WR Mike Evans, TB @ DAL ($6,800)
I just decided to eat ownership on Adams and differentiate elsewhere, which hopefully plays out as intended with Tampa at JerryWorld. Dallas has allowed the third-fewest points to receivers and should deter the DraftKings masses. We're betting on Evans' track record of production and the negative game script to spur the league's No. 1 pass offense into action.
WR Chris Godwin, TB @ DAL ($4,300)
The Tampa side of this stack is complete with the cap-saver on Godwin, who falls out of the top 30 in WR pricing due to a recent bout of inefficiency in dicey weather conditions. Wind and rain will be no factor at Dallas for a player who ranked top 15 in air yards over the two weeks leading into that Baltimore downpour.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ vs. GB ($3,100)
Herndon's price is vital to this stars-and-scrubsian lineup. He's a palatable swing to take on a top-10 tight end in air yards at the position since Week 12.
FLEX Michael Gallup, DAL vs. TB ($3,500)
Like Godwin, Gallup's another air yards play and part of the Bucs-Boys stack. Gallup ranked sixth in air yards over the two weeks leading into that Indy meltdown. At a certain point it's worth asking how many times you'd like to be burned by Gallup in GPPs, but this cost and this spot get me on board for the air upside once more.
D/ST Atlanta Falcons @ Panthers ($2,300)
We either get a quarterback with a dead throwing arm or a quarterback making his first start. At $1,200 off the positional ceiling, I'll take the cap and go against the Panthers.
