Continuum Economics

May 08, 2024

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending pullback from the 1.2634 high

May 8, 2024 1:41 AM UTC

Break of the 1.2518/00 support extending pullback from the 1.2634 high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure, extending pullback from the 1.0812 high

May 8, 2024 1:28 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the 1.0812 high and break of the 1.0750 support see room to the 1.0725/1.0700 area

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending rally from the 164.00 support

May 8, 2024 1:13 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 164.00 level and break of the 165.35 resistance has seen rally through the 166.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce

May 8, 2024 12:55 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the strong support at the 152.00/151.85 area as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from the .6050 resistance

May 8, 2024 12:33 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the .6050 high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart AUD/USD Update: Weighing on .6585 support, room for deeper pullback

May 8, 2024 12:09 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the .6644/50 resistance as prices unwind the overbought intraday and daily studies

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights

May 8, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback stays solid after some modest volatility. THB saw the largest losses of 0.30%, followed by SGD 0.24%, CNH and IDR 0.15%, CNY 0.14%, TWD 0.06%, HKD 0.04%, INR and PHP 0.02%; the only winners are KRW 0.22% and MYR 0.01%.

May 07, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 8th

May 7, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

North American Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - In a day of limited news the USD advanced as equity gains faded.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Leaning lower

May 7, 2024 4:14 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower to 16.8000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher

May 7, 2024 3:47 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the smart bounce from above support at 1.3590/00

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 8th

May 7, 2024 3:08 PM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

Preview: Due May16 - U.S. April Industrial Production - A modest rise

May 7, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

We expect April industrial production to rise by 0.3% overall with a 0.2% increase in manufacturing. We expect utilities output to provide a lift but negatives from mining and autos.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Balanced beneath critical resistance at 0.6668/75

May 7, 2024 2:05 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited gains

May 7, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Cautious tests higher have reached 166.50

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Neutral rate may have increased

May 7, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Indonesia Q4 GDP Preview: Robust Start to 2024

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited tests higher - background studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. Fiscal Problems: 2025 More Than 2024

May 7, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Current real yields in the U.S. government bond market already large reflect the large government deficit trajectory. Even so, H1 2025 could see some extra fiscal tensions that add 30-40bps to 10yr U.S. Treasury yields as the post president election environment will either see a reelected Joe Bide

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the bounce from support at 104.50

Banxico Preview: Continuing at 25bps

May 7, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

Banxico will convene on May 9 to decide on the policy rate, having initiated a possible cutting cycle. Despite concerns, the MXN remains stable. The 25bps adjustment aims to maintain tight monetary policy while mitigating inflation. The board may split over this decision, but Banxico is likely to co

Chart USD/RUB Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 11:35 AM UTC

Little change, as flattening oversold daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Balanced above 4.3000 - studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 11:27 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break away from the descending triangle pattern

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Balanced within 18.4100-18.5000 - background under pressure

May 7, 2024 10:47 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

European Summary and Highlights 07 May

May 7, 2024 10:27 AM UTC

A fairly quiet European morning saw a modest dip in EUR/USD early on as German factory orders data showed a weaker than expected 0.4% decline in March.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Further consolidation

May 7, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

The test of congestion resistance at 1.4750 is giving way to consolidation

Psychology for major markets May 7th

May 7, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited

May 7, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The break below 0.9760 has bounced from 0.9722

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

May 7, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of support within 0.9000/35 is giving way to a drift higher

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Limited gains

May 7, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated test higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure

May 7, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure

May 7, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Apr 30th

May 7, 2024 7:16 AM UTC

Modest reducion in CHF and JPY shorts - still extended.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Choppy trade see room to 1.6365/1.6400 resistance

May 7, 2024 7:13 AM UTC

Bounce at the 1.6218 low see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Stretched, but still supported at 1.0955/50 area

May 7, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Lower in range from the 1.1030 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.0855/1.0850 low of April

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone

May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Limited gains above the 102.00 level

May 7, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

Limited above the 102.00 level as prices unwind stretched intraday studies from the 102.45 high

RBA Review: Change in wordings, no change in heart

May 7, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 7th has kept rates on hold and see a change wordings in forward guidance but not the meaning.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 7th

May 7, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 6:09 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: RBA remain on hold

May 7, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending corrective bounce; strong resistance at 7.2340

May 7, 2024 5:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.1650 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 83.2650 low

May 7, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation and clear lift over the 83.4000 level clear the way for retest of the 83.5250 high

AUD/USD flows: Soft Q1 Retail sales

May 7, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian Q1 Retail sales lower than expected

USD/JPY flows: Grinding higher

May 7, 2024 3:57 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi has no comment on currency intervention
Japan's Kanda says no comment on Yellen's comments on FX

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Range-bound in consolidation above 16000 level

May 7, 2024 2:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the 15979 low to consolidate steep drop from the 16280 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Corrective bounce from 36.50 support

May 7, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 36.50 low as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Limited bounce from the 1350.00/1347.00 support

May 7, 2024 2:35 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from the 1350.00/1347.00 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in consolidation from the 1.3450/38 support

May 7, 2024 2:13 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 1.3450/1.3438 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies to correct the steep drop from the 1.3660 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Range-bound in consolidation below 1.2634 high

May 7, 2024 2:00 AM UTC

Little change, with prices locked in range below the 1.2634 high of Friday