NHS facing SUMMER crisis as hospital strain to become YEAR ROUND disaster
THE NATIONAL Health Service is on course for a "summer crisis" as pressures more normally seen in winter months continues, doctors have warned. The summer months are normally when NHS demand eases in terms of more A&E visits but fewer emergency admissions, leaving more beds free to deal with casualty arrivals.
But the British Medical Association doctors' "union" expects stresses this year to mirror those seen during winters of two or three years ago and says the service now faces a "year-round crisis".
Its team used official data from the last five years to forecast a series of summer scenarios, measured in A&E attendances, waiting times, admissions and trolley waits.
The "worst-case" situation could see 6.2 million visits to A&E over July, August and September.
Some 774,000 people, one in eight patients, would wait more than four hours to be seen and treated, and just 87.5 per cent would be dealt with in that target time.
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Some 147,000 would wait on trolleys for four or more hours.
The "best-case" scenario sees 5.89 million summer attendances, 89.6 per cent getting processed in four hours, 613,000 waiting longer and 127,000 stuck on trolleys.
Some NHS trusts are already keeping their winter contingency plans in place, said the BMA.
BMA council chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul said: "This data shows what doctors working on the front line have been saying for some time that the winter crisis has truly been replaced by a year-round crisis.
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"Doctors and patients have just endured one of the worst winters on record, resulting in thousands of cancelled operations, unacceptable long waits to be seen and people who are already at their most vulnerable having to face the indignity of being treated in hospital corridors.
"We cannot accept that this is the new normal for the NHS."
The BMA has welcomed Theresa May's new commitment to a long-term funding plan for the NHS but demands urgent investment properly to tackle pressures.
A spokesman for NHS England conceded that the NHS had faced continued pressure after one of the coldest March’s in 30 years and must also respond in coming years to the needs of a growing and ageing population.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: "We know that demand continues to grow, and that staff have never worked harder, which is why we gave a pay rise to more than 1.2 million dedicated staff, and why we supported the NHS with an extra £2.8billion, on top of a planned £10billion a year increase in its budget by 2020-21.
"The Prime Minister and Health and Social Care Secretary Jeremy Hunt have committed to a fully funded, long-term plan for the NHS, which will be agreed with NHS leaders, clinicians, and health experts."
