LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 07: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Manager of Manchester United looks on during ... [+]
Sport management is a tough gig; a few bad results and quite often the sack is soon to follow. This is perhaps most extreme in England’s Premier League
The Premier League’s most successful club, Manchester United, has fallen on harder times in recent years, and as such, after they employed Sir Alex Ferguson for almost 27 years, five managers have filled the hot seat since he retired in May 2013.
The most recent is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a hero at Old Trafford in his playing days. He’s had an up and down time in charge, being close to the sack around this time last year before masterminding a stunning set of results.
This season, however, has begun underwhelmingly for United, and while last season Solskjaer survived the sack, there was one thing that he didn’t have up against him: West Bromwich Albion.
Henley Business School’s Prof Adrian R. Bell, and TalkSport, have coined the “Second Economic Law of Football”, namely that playing West Brom (and losing) is a very negative signal career wise. Alex Ferguson’s final game as coach was against West Brom, and across Manchester, Roberto Mancini’s spell in charge ended after facing (even beating) West Brom. Paolo Di Canio at Sunderland, Chris Hughton at Norwich, Craig Shakespeare at Leicester, Mick McCarthy at Wolves, and Andre Villas-Boas at Chelsea.
The list goes on, and includes some illustrious names; Gerry Francis (Bristol Rovers, 1991), Steve Bruce (Crystal Palace, 2001), Frank McLintock (Leicester, 1978), Brian Horton (Oxford, 1993), Lou Macari (Stoke, 1997), and even Ossie Ardiles (Swindon, 1991). It all began with rivals Stoke in 1892 (Joseph Bradshaw), and fittingly, those rivals have seen two other manager tenures end at the hands of West Brom (Macari and Rory Delap 2019). Stoke are the joint biggest victims of Bell’s Law, alongside QPR (John Gregory 2007, Luigi Di Canio 2008 and Jim Magilton 2009) and Everton (Dick Molyneux 1901, Ian Buchan 1958, Harry Catterick 1973).
In all, one way or another, 46 managers have faced West Brom in their last match in charge, and 47 managerial spells have been ended by West Brom (Chris Hughton falling foul of the Bell’s Law twice).
Hence, all managers should fear playing West Brom. But not only West Brom. In fact, the worst possible team for a manager to face is actually Gillingham. Fifty five managerial spells have been ended after facing the Gills - Kent’s finest. The second most dangerous team to face as a manager is Leyton Orient or Bristol City, who between them have destroyed 106 managerial tenures. The third most mortal opponent a coach can face, ironically enough, is Manchester United, who have ended 49 managerial spells - two more than West Brom.
Here’s the top ten of worst teams to face:
The most dangerous teams to face as a manager in English football
However, these teams have played a different number of matches, meaning that the regularity with which they knock off managers could be really quite different. If we divide total matches by the number of times a team has finished a manager, we get games per finish, so to speak. When we do this, Gillingham are entirely in a league of their own:
Top ten clubs by games per finish, the number of games a team plays until they next end a manager's ... [+]
Because Gillingham have only played 4,400 matches to Leyton Orient’s 5,006, they are far out ahead in terms of games per finish. Every 80 games Gillingham end a managerial tenure, whereas Leyton Orient do it every 94 matches - some distance behind. Bristol City only end a tenure every 98 matches, almost two whole seasons of matches.
