Covid spreading nationally as R rate back above 1

Covid is spreading nationally once again, with the official R value for the UK back above 1, official figures show.

The latest survey painted a mixed picture, with progress driving down infections continuing in the North East, Yorkshire and The Humber, but spiralling case rates in London and Wales.

The figures up to December 12 also show increases in the East of England, East Midlands and the South East.

Overall in England, around one in 95 people had the virus last week.

The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said on Friday it believes the R value for the UK to be at between 1.1 and 1.2, up from 0.9 to 1 the previous Friday.

It means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 12 other people.

In England the rate stands even higher at between 1.1 and 1.3, while experts warned it might be as high as 1.4 in the East, and 1.3 in both London and the South East.

The figures will heap further pressure on the Government to backtrack on the easing of restrictions promised over the Christmas period.

Up to three households are able to mix in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland between December 23 and 27, but the limit is two households in Wales.

Travel to and from Northern Ireland is also permitted on December 22 and 28

On Friday, one leading scientist urged families to consider postponing their festive gatherings until Easter.

The survey, carried out between December 10 and 13, before Mr Johnson urged people to scale back their festive plans, also found that fewer people are planning social activities such as meeting in pubs, cafes or bars, compared with last year.

Professor Tim Spector, who leads the King’s College London symptom tracker app study, said: “With just a week until Christmas Day it’s a bleak picture across the UK, particularly for Wales and London.

Our data shows that cases and hospitalisations are rising again, which worryingly could mean the start of a third wave earlier than we expected.”

He added: “Sadly, Christmas 2020 won’t be normal.

“People should stay in small groups, avoid travelling to and from higher risk areas and socialise outdoors.

“People also need to know about the 20-plus symptoms of early infection they can experience including fatigue and headache and not take risks if they start feeling unwell.”

Friday’s figures revealed that the number of people with Covid-19 in England surged by 86,000 in the second week of December, suggesting the infection took off again just days after November’s national lockdown ended.

The Office for National Statistics estimated that 567,300 people were infected with the virus by December 12, up from 481,500 a week earlier.

The toll marked the first time in a month infections had risen after restrictions were tightened across the country to try and control the second wave.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said: “On the day when it seems likely that the number of Covid-19 fatalities in the UK will overtake the country’s tally of civilian deaths during the Second World War, the latest Covid-19 report from ONS is sobering.

“The data continues to show a mixed picture across England, with clear and continued increases in the numbers of people infected in some areas and a slowing in the rate of decline in some areas that are under Tier 3 and even some increases in areas in the top tier. Nationally the decrease in numbers which we’d previously seen has clearly gone into reverse.”

Professor Spector said: “There are no exceptions, everyone needs to take care, but we are urging people to consider postponing Christmas socialising until Easter.”